The sound of knocking can be heard on war's door and questions remain as to what will be on the other side in terms of gas price stability.

Bamberg's Brabham Oil Co. spokesperson Brad McCully is keeping an optimistic outlook.

"I see them (prices) lower in the coming weeks," McCully said, assuming that war in Iraq will reach a conclusion in quick order. "It will have to be something pretty big to cause them (prices) to go the other way. Something will have to go awry."

While price increases have become commonplace over the past three months, during the week of March 12-19 they actually tumbled an average of 2 or 3 cents a gallon throughout The T&D Region, consistent with McCully's assessment.

"Of course, we have to build up gasoline volumes and inventory for the driving season, but that should not be difficult," McCully said. "Hopefully, things will be smoother and prices will be lower."

In Wednesday's survey of selected stations in the region, the least-expensive gasoline sold in Orangeburg for $1.489 a gallon at four stations listed below.

Gasoline at the Shell E-Z Shop at U.S. 21 and Highway 22, near Interstate 26 exit 139, also sold for $1.489 a gallon.

The most-expensive gasoline of stations surveyed sold in Branchville, Bamberg, Santee and St. Matthews for $1.579 a gallon.

Gasoline prices locally continue to average well below the national figure, which is recorded at $1.728 a gallon. The price eclipses the record high set in May 2001, the Energy Information Administration said earlier this week.

These numbers have left little to wonder with regard to what has occurred on this side of the proverbial ''door.''

Disagreeing with McCully, the EIA, a statistical arm of the Energy Department, has predicted prices will continue to soar at the pump because of tight supplies and high crude oil costs, possibly reaching an average of $1.76 cents a gallon next month.

Motorists probably will pay more than $1.70 cents a gallon through the summer driving season, the agency said.

Of course, other experts side with McCully; pointing out that war with Iraq may hold economic promise for the nation by doing away with the uncertainty that is weighing heavily on consumers and businesses.

"A short, quick and successful war will probably be good for the economy," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York. "A long, drawn-out war spreading to other parts of the Middle East and shoving up oil prices could be a disaster."

Analysts believe a victory in Iraq, by removing uncertainty, would spur growth. The economy also will be assisted, they say, by passage of at least a portion of President Bush's new tax cut stimulus package.

A darker scenario could also crop up.

The conflict could spread to other countries in the Middle East, disrupting global oil supplies and causing energy prices to skyrocket. Or terrorists could launch new attacks in the United States, sending already shaky consumer confidence into a nosedive.

Global Insight Inc., a Lexington, Mass., forecasting firm, said that in its "bad war" scenario, the resulting disruption in global oil supplies would push the price of oil above $60 per barrel and the U.S. economy back into recession.

Global Insight gives a slim 2-in-100 chance this outcome will occur. Much more likely -- with a probability of 60 percent -- is a quick war outcome, the forecasting firm told its clients.

In its weekly gasoline price tally, the EIA reports that regular gasoline prices ranged from a low of $1.61 a gallon along the Gulf Coast to a high of $2.145 a gallon in California, a jump of about 6 cents a gallon from a week ago in that part of the country.

Before this week, the highest average gasoline price recorded by the EIA was in May 2001, when motorists paid an average of $1.71 a gallon at pumps across the country.

The EIA noted that the current prices, if inflation were taken into account, might still be considered a bargain compared to what motorists paid 1981.

Using today's dollars, gasoline cost an equivalent of $2.90 a gallon in March 1981 in the aftermath of the turmoil in oil supply caused by Iran's 1979 Islamic revolution.

As The T&D continues its weekly gas survey, we encourage readers to get involved.

If you know of a gasoline price consistently lower than those in our survey, let us know by e-mail at news@timesanddemocrat.com, by fax at 803-533-5595 or by phone at 803-534-1060. The prices must be consistently low for inclusion in the survey. Here are some of the prices found in the survey conducted Wednesday, Mar. 19:

Orangeburg

-- Horizon E-Z Shop, Old St. Matthews Road: regular unleaded, $1.489.

-- Short Stop, Magnolia and U.S. 178: regular unleaded, $1.489.

-- Dodge's Store at U.S. 301 and Cannon Bridge Road: regular unleaded, $1.489.

-- Big D's Shell, Magnolia Street and U.S. 178: regular unleaded, $1.489.

-- Horizon E-Z Shop, Shillings Bridge Road: regular unleaded, $1.499.

-- Hot Spot, John C. Calhoun Drive: regular unleaded, $1.499.

-- Speedway, U.S. 21 and U.S. 21 Bypass: regular unleaded, $1.519.

-- Gaz-bah Exxon, Chestnut and Ellis: regular unleaded, $1.519.

-- Citgo, Charleston Highway: regular unleaded, $1.529.

-- Exxon, Charleston Highway: regular unleaded, $1.529.

-- Speedway, Boulevard St. and Carolina Ave., $1.539.

Neeses

-- Fogle's Piggly Wiggly, Highway 4 and U.S. 321: regular unleaded, $1.499.

Bamberg

-- Horizon E-Z Shop West, U.S. 78 West: regular unleaded, $1.579.

-- Horizon E-Z Shop on U.S. 301 South: regular unleaded, $1.579.

Branchville

-- Horizon E-Z Shop, Freedom Road: regular unleaded, $1.579.

Holly Hill

-- Amoco Food Mart, Old State Road: regular unleaded, $1.539.

Santee

-- Horizon E-Z Shop, Highway 6: regular unleaded, $1.579.

St. George

-- Fast Point Food Store, on Highway 78 and Sears Street: regular unleaded, $1.549.

St. Matthews

-- Amoco, Highway 6: regular unleaded, $1.579.

T&D Staff Writer Gene Zaleski can be reached by e-mail at gzaleski@timesanddemocrat.com or by phone at 803-533-5551.

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