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Blacks moving away from Clinton to Obama, poll shows

 Friday, September 14, 2007

1 comment(s) | Default | Large

COLUMBIA -- The results are in on a groundbreaking Winthrop/ETV poll, conducted exclusively with S.C. African-Americans between Aug. 19 and Sept. 9 as the Democratic presidential candidates battled for the top spot and talk was of Gen. Petraeus' testimony about Iraq.

The Winthrop/ETV poll was conducted among 657 randomly selected African-Americans in South Carolina and has a margin of error of plus/minus 3.82 percent.

Discussing the pioneering nature of the survey during an ETV appearance, Dr. Scott Huffmon, director of the Winthrop/ETV poll initiative, said, "This poll is groundbreaking because it samples the general African-American population, not just likely voters, and because of the breadth of the topics it covers. We felt that the African-American population is vastly underserved when it comes to having its opinions recorded. This is our attempt to address that issue."

On the results themselves, Huffmon, who designed the survey with the assistance of Winthrop University's co-director of African-American Studies, Dr. Adolphus Belk, Jr., said the horse race results show that, "Early on, African-Americans threw their support to Hillary Clinton, primarily based on the Clinton legacy. However, as African-American voters have gotten to know Barack Obama, support for him has increased significantly. The real tipping point in the Democratic primary election may be undecided African-American female voters -- there are many more African-American female undecideds than males, and Clinton and Obama are dead even among African-American women. It may literally come down to whoever gets the African-American female vote. Clearly support for Edwards, etc. is coming from white voters. On another note, among African-Americans in South Carolina right now, George Bush is proving to be a much more polarizing figure than the Confederate flag."

Adds Belk, "The survey results show that there is considerable dissatisfaction within the African-American community regarding the war on terrorism -- in particular the struggles in Iraq and Afghanistan. Nearly 90 percent of the respondents said that they disapproved of President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq. What is more, only 7.3 percent of the respondents believed that the war in Iraq has made America safer, while 82.5 percent felt that it has created additional threats to our security. About 84 percent of those surveyed said that they disapproved of the president's handling of the war in Afghanistan."

Among the Winthrop/ETV Poll Findings:

* The horse-race results take on added significance by the fact that historically, African-Americans have made up to 50 percent of voters in Democratic primaries in South Carolina.

When the question was asked "If the Democratic presidential primary election were held today, which of these candidates would you vote for?" and broken down among both genders, male only, female only, and those who feel their race or ethnic background contributes a great deal to their identity, Barack Obama emerges as the winner in three out of the four match-ups, trailing Clinton in the fourth match-up (taken of women only) by .3 of one percentage point.

Coming in third in the field, with only 3 percent in his column, Edwards and his fellow Dems just don't seem to be registering with African-Americans -- although almost 30 percent count themselves as still undecided. Edwards, in the first Winthrop/ETV poll released in late May, taken among registered voters of all races -- was the top choice of 10.7 percent of the respondents.

* Of the 10 Republican candidates, only newcomer Fred Thompson made inroads, with a 20.9 percent showing. Importantly though, of the 657 polled, a mere 45 individuals said they would vote in the Republican primary in January, and of those, almost half (46.5 percent) were still undecided whom they would vote for. This means all remaining Republicans received such a tiny fraction of positive responses, that the numbers they accrued are statistically insignificant.

* When asked, "Do you think white Americans would be willing to vote for an African-American for president?" almost 60 percent agreed they would, with an additional 10.4 percent either unsure about, or unwilling to, offer an opinion.

* With news of the surge dominating headlines this week, the vast majority of respondents, 61.3 percent, felt that the troop surge has been either somewhat unsuccessful or very unsuccessful.

* When it comes to whether African-Americans feel they are being asked to assume too much of the burden of fighting the war in Iraq, those who say yes, and those who say no, are separated by a mere 4.1 percent (39.4 versus 43.5 percent, respectively. Another 16.1 percent are unsure.

Among the additional findings:

* Fifty-three percent of respondents felt that the Republican Party was working to attract African-American voters. And of those, some 61 percent feel that the party is either very effective, or somewhat effective, in their efforts. At the same time, 56.2 percent of respondents felt that the national Democratic Party, and 57.1 percent of the respondents felt that the SC Democratic Party were taking their votes for granted.

* While almost 50 percent of respondents felt the Confederate flag was primarily either a symbol of racism or hate, almost 20 percent saw it as symbolizing both pride in heritage and symbolic of racism and hate, while 11.3 percent saw it as neither.

Almost 87 percent disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president.

* Even though almost 75 percent of those polled felt that sex between two adults of the same sex was strongly unacceptable, or somewhat unacceptable, 47 percent also said they have a family member who is openly gay or lesbian, and almost 50 percent said they have a close friend in one of those categories.

* Over 73 percent of respondents felt that sexually explicit lyrics in Rap music cause males to be sexually explicit with females, while almost 75 percent say that violent Rap music and videos do lead people to be more violent. Still, almost 72 percent feel that some Rap music has positive themes that have the ability to uplift and empower people.

* While almost 40 percent of those who took the poll describe South Carolina public schools as doing a good or excellent job in educating students in the state, an additional 38.4 percent rated SC public schools as only fair, while 16.6 percent said they did a poor job. When it comes to looking at only African-American children who are in school, those who feel they're receiving a good or excellent education drops to 27.5 percent, while 40.5 percent selected "only fair" to best describe their opinion, and one-fourth, or almost 26 percent, thought the state was doing a poor job of educating black youth.

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1 comment(s)
The following comments are reader submitted. They do not represent the views of The T&D or Lee Enterprises.

msnz911 wrote on Sep 14, 2007 11:35 AM:

" Obama, who graduated from Columbia and decided to go back to Chicago to organize poor people around issues, has approached his campaign as an opportunity to build a movement — a movement based in communities around issues that matter. Why are so many people responding to Obama? Because he is straightforward, and is clearly about a lot more than his own ego. Unlike John Edwards, Obama hasn’t had to “move to the left” or discover that he was wrong about Iraq. Obama didn’t discover unions and the rift between rich and poor after losing an election in 2004. Unlike Hillary Clinton, Obama has been consistently solid on the key issues — and unlike Hillary, we know, if Obama is elected, where he will be on the issues. (Do we really need a second Clinton presidency, framed by lots of progressive hype, which delivers so little in the way of progressive legislation, and so much to Wall St?) And, perhaps most important, Obama’s followers have the potential — with the support of their candidate — to build a new progressive movement in the U.S. and a new reform movement in the Democratic Party. Obama speaks about his candidacy, and even his possible election as president, as part of the launching of a new movement to change America. The president of the United States encouraging a movement for progressive social change? Now there’s a thought! There are two ways that we can look at next year’s election. We can look at it as an opportunity to stop the endless mudslide of domestic and foreign disasters that have darkened our horizons during the Bush years. This would be no minor accomplishment. But, next year, we can try to do more. We can look to elect a president who not only looks different, but who thinks and acts differently, a progressive champion who boldly reasserts government’s role as protector and uplifter of the people at home, and who can reinvent American foreign policy as a force for peace, not coercive power, across the globe. We need a candidate, and a president, who understands that he or she cannot succeed unless the people are standing alongside him — ahead of the powerbrokers and money guys — ready to help enforce their collective will. There is no question that Barack Obama is such a candidate. "



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