ISSUE: Weather warnings change

OUR VIEW: Using technology to pinpoint danger is overdue change

Weather forecasting can be controversial. Tourism interests have complained over time about the window of time used to predict hurricane strikes, saying the forecast is too far out in time. People leave out of fear even when the big storms ultimately get nowhere near their location.

Don't expect to hear those kind of protests against the latest change by the National Weather Service to more directly pinpoint the path of severe weather. It comes at a time when television and Web weather forecasts are increasingly sophisticated and emergency officials using the latest technology are able to issue warnings practically down to the street level.

The NWS has decided to abandon is decades-old system of warnings by counties. The new system -- called storm-based warnings -- is designed to predict the moment a storm will hit a community or even a certain crossroads based on radar and computer modeling programs.

Officials say the system also will make it easier to send weather warnings through cell phones, pagers or Internet-enabled handheld devices.

"A storm-based warning focuses on a storm itself and the geographic area that might be affected by it," Eli Jacks, a meteorologist at weather service headquarters in suburban Washington, told The Associated Press. "We can really reduce the number of people being warned by reducing that geographic area."

A warning that in the past might cover thousands of square miles will, under the new system, be reduced to a few hundred square miles, he said.

"This is just a benefit of new technology and advances we have made in science."

Some weather experts are concerned that radar has its limits and a fast-moving storm can change direction, suddenly taking aim at an area not mentioned in the storm warning. But Jacks said the system will be able to keep up with abrupt changes.

A report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the new system would save $100 million annually, mainly by cutting back on unneeded business closings and the amount of time people spend huddled in closets or basements during warnings.

The system, which will resemble the warnings already used by some weather service offices and TV meteorologists, takes effect nationally on Oct. 1. While initially limited to warnings for tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, floods and marine hazards, Jacks said it would be expanded to include other threats like extreme heat.

Weather watches, which cover broad areas where storms may develop, will still be issued on a county-by-county basis, he said.

The new warnings have worked well during trials in Indiana, said Dave Tucek, who coordinates severe weather warning in the agency's Indianapolis office.

"I think it has been a good system," Tucek said. "The idea behind it ... is that there is no reason to warn the northern end of a county about something that is in the southern end of a county."

For a county the size of Orangeburg, with the state's second largest land area, the new system is overdue. The weather impacting the western portion of the county near the Aiken line in many instances is having no effect on the east bordering Berkeley. Pinpointing the danger will give more meaning to the warnings as people will come to know real danger is at hand and not simply in the vicinity.

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