Candidates see S.C. as key upcoming test
By LEE TANT, T&D Staff Writer Tuesday, January 08, 2008As the dates for South Carolina's presidential primaries near, campaigns are gearing up for the last-minute push to get their respective candidates the coveted win and all-important momentum.
Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Don Fowler said results in South Carolina could well determine the nominees for both parties, depending upon what happens tonight in New Hampshire. If the three traditional early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina produce the same winner, it creates a sense of momentum that knows no boundaries, he said.
That puts a South Carolina victory in the crosshairs of every campaign, especially ones trying to regain momentum.
A win in South Carolina for White House contenders Sen. Hillary Clinton and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney could be a necessity if the latest New Hampshire polls hold true.
The USA/Gallup Poll has Sen. Barack Obama carrying the momentum of his Iowa victory to an enormous 13-point advantage over Clinton. Meanwhile on the Republican side, a resurgent Sen. John McCain is attempting to win the Granite State primary for the second time, currently holding a 4-point lead over Romney.
"If Romney doens't win New Hampshire, Romney is dead," said Fowler, noting the tremendous amount of resources the Romney campaign has spent on winning early voting states. Fowler, who endorses Clinton, said failure for her to win New Hampshire would deal a significant blow but because of a broad national organization would not end her run.
Romney state campaign spokesman Will Holley conceded that both New Hampshire and South Carolina are going to be tough battles to win. Despite the campaign's loss in Iowa, Holley said a lot can happen between now and Jan. 19.
"South Carolina is obviously a very important state," Holley said.
The Republican primary will held Jan. 19 with Democrats voting for their candidates a week later on Jan. 26.
State Sen. John Matthews, D-Bowman, co-chair of Clinton's S.C. campaign, insists his candidate's chances for the nomination are not flat-lining.
"Hillary has a good ground game. This is not about one primary, this is about going the distance," Matthews said.
The senator said Clinton is battle-tested and can handle the rigorous attacks made by Republicans, which is a test Obama has yet to pass, he said.
While Clinton's campaign may be taking a surprising downturn at the moment, Republican Mike Huckabee's chances for the nomination have seen a meteoric rise in the past month.
Winning Iowa by a 9-point margin over Romney and currently leading in all Palmetto State polls by a comfortable margin, Huckabee is winning over the conservative base, according to his S.C. spokesman Adam Piper.
Piper credits the campaign's grassroots efforts in the state and Huckabee being the authentic, consistent conservative candidate in the GOP field as reasons for dominance in recent polls.
"He best exemplifies South Carolina values," he said.
The Web site realclearpolitics.com averaged five of the latest polls which show that Huckabee has 25.8 percent of likely Republican voters. Romney has 19.3 percent, followed by former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson with 13.5 and McCain with 13. These polls were conducted from Dec. 10 to Dec. 18.
The same averages show the once-large gap between Clinton and Obama narrowing to a near dead heat. Clinton has a 34.4 to 33.8 percent lead over chief rival Obama. South Carolina native John Edwards comes in third at 15.4 percent.
Like Huckabee, Obama's White House hopes have soared in the past month. Obama spokesman Amaya Smith credited new support to the large volunteer base in the state that is relaying his message of hope and change.
"We've been able to close a double-digit lead between us and Sen. Clinton," she said. Smith said an S.C. win would catapult the campaign in a positive direction heading into the Feb. 5 super primary date when 24 states are scheduled to hold primaries or caucuses.
Continuing that momentum might be necessary to close yet another gap the Obama campaign faces in looking toward Feb. 5. Clinton fares better in many Super Tuesday states, according to realclearpolitics.com poll averages, currently having large leads in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and California. She also holds advantages in Michigan and Nevada, the two states leading up to South Carolina but not traditional early voting states.
With McCain possibly poised to win New Hampshire, his campaign's focus will shift to the Palmetto State.
"He is going to spend so much time in South Carolina, he is going to have to get a driver's license," McCain spokesman B.J. Boling said.
McCain has campaigned extensively in the state, including a stop at South Carolina State University in October. He has the endorsement of House Speaker Bobby Harrell, R-Charleston, and McCain's counterpart Arizona Sen. John Kyl is scheduled to campaign for him here this month.
Boling said the campaign's strategy is centered around capturing momentum from New Hampshire and possibly Michigan and seeing it carry forward to other states. Boiling said the state is essential for McCain because no Republican has recently captured the nomination without victory in the Palmetto State.
As far for McCain's sudden spike in polls, Boiling attributes that to McCain never sacrificing principle.
"John McCain may not always say the things people want to hear, but he always tells the truth," Boling said.
Like McCain, former vice presidential candidate John Edwards has allotted many resources in hopes of a South Carolina victory.
Edwards S.C. spokesman Teresa Wells noted there is large number of undecided and uncommitted voters still out there. She cited a recent Clemson poll that said 49 percent of Democratic voters remain undecided.
Wells said they have a more home-grown feel to their campaign, spending more time in engaging voters and answering their questions vs. holding press conferences.
With his second-place finish in Iowa, Edwards hopes for even better results in South Carolina. He led here in third-quarter fundraising.
Edwards has aired multiple commercial ads touting his ability to fight for the middle class. His populist approach resonated well in 2004 when he won the state and hopes to capitalize on that momentum in 2008.
According to Fowler, momentum is the name of the game at this juncture. "The more momentum you get, the harder it is to contain," he said.
T&D Staff Writer Lee Tant can be reached at ltant@timesanddemocrat.com and 803-534-1060.
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