THE ISSUE: Obama’s chances in S.C.

OUR OPINION: Candidate has pluses, but S.C. very Republican

Sen. Barack Obama has said he will mount a challenge in every state in the Union. He has been widely perceived as a candidate who can change the electoral map of recent decades, turning some so-called red states Democratic blue.

Most reliable among red states has been the old Confederacy. Republicans have dominated the South since the days of Richard Nixon and the Harry Dent-authored Southern strategy.

This time around, Democrats say they can win in states such as North Carolina and Virginia.

Couple metropolitan voters with a large turnout among African-Americans and young people and it’s not hard to see why Democrats are optimistic.

One state most often considered “out of play” is South Carolina, where the Republican Party virtually rules. The very fact that Obama announced he would place paid staff in the state surprised many. Can he win here?

The latest polling says no.

Republican John McCain still has a solid lead in the state, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling. McCain leads Obama 45-39. An additional 5 percent say they plan to support Libertarian Bob Barr.

Obama is doing well with the groups that fueled his blowout win in the South Carolina Democratic primary. He leads 77-10 with black voters, and 54-32 with voters between the ages of 18 and 29. McCain leads pretty much every other demographic group.

“It would take an exceptional turnout from young voters and black voters, as well as a lot of disaffected conservatives voting for Bob Barr, to make a win in South Carolina possible for Barack Obama,” said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. “He does seem likely to outperform John Kerry, but a victory in the Palmetto State is still a long shot.”

Another poll shows McCain has a 53 to 40 lead over Obama in the state. The liberal blog DailyKos and polling firm Research 2000 conducted the live telephone survey of 500 likely voters with a margin of error at 4.5 percent.

Democrats indicate a surprise could be in the offing. They cite the turnout of far more Democrats for the primary than Republicans for their vote a week earlier. The point is valid, but the dynamics of the primaries were the key factor. There was far more interest among South Carolinians, all of whom are officially independents, in the Democratic race than the Republican contest.

Now that the field is essentially down to two, look for the Republican power structure in the state to move aggressively to deliver South Carolina for McCain.

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