With only weeks to go until the polls open on Nov. 4, voters can expect to be subjected to hours of discussion and reams of literature by experts on how the elections will shake out.

Political observers at several Palmetto State universities generally agree that the results will probably follow prior patterns. However, they also concur that new dynamics presented by the inclusion of an black man and a white woman could make the election tighter than previously imagined.

Dr. Scott Huffmon, associate political science professor at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, says all the signs he is witnessing point to what he calls a “deviating election.”

“I do believe this could be a close presidential election, which I find fascinating,” he said. “In a normal election, most voters identify with one or the other of the two major political parties. This gives that party ‘the juice’ and voting follows predictable patterns.

“This year, however, far more people in the U.S. are identifying themselves as Democrats but the polling results are showing a much tighter race. That tells me this could be a deviating election.”

Dr. Willie Legette, a South Carolina State University political science professor, says while there are other factors in play for the 2008 presidential election, he feels reasonably certain two outcomes can be predicted.

“Voter turnout will be greater than in the past, plus we can also say South Carolina will be a win for the national Republican Party,” Legette said. “I don’t think that the margin of victory will be any smaller than in the past.

“I base this on national polling results that show 20 percent of voters still say race is a factor in how they plan to vote. The results of polls in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Ohio show similar percentages. These voters overwhelmingly voted for Hillary Clinton. By and large, whites don’t vote for the national Democratic ticket.”

Legette said, “Although Obama is an exceptional candidate who should command support among voter segments that aren’t traditionally strong -- young adults, blacks, independents -- I think there is an even higher percentage of voters, especially in states like South Carolina, who are unwilling to admit race is a factor. Whether or not Obama can override this remains to be seen.”

Legette says that there is one irony to the presidential election that could make some voters hesitate.

“Obama’s detractors have stated repeatedly that he is inexperienced,” Legette said. “However, the same argument also applies to (Alaska Gov.) Sarah Palin.”

Both Legette and Huffmon feel that Barack Obama’s coattails could translate into big wins for local and statewide Democratic candidates, although Legette also pointed out that practically every black elected official in South Carolina comes from a majority-black district.

“The top local elections probably will result in a good turnout for Democrats,” Legette said. “I don’t think (Sen. John) McCain is going to be able to bring a turnout as large among GOP voters as Obama will for Democratic voters.”

“The Democratic surge could make a difference and this could flip some local races,” Huffmon said. “Obama may not bring enough excitement to win South Carolina for the down-ticket races but that excitement should result in larger vote margins for the Congressional and U.S. Senate contests.

“The biggest Achilles heel for South Carolina Democrats is that the strength of the candidates it has fielded in statewide races has been eroding over the last 10 years.”

Huffmon also feels that two conventional political wisdom arguments will come into play in November.

“One contention states the candidate that’s not expecting to win in a given area like South Carolina still needs to expend resources so the other candidate is forced to divert his resources,” Huffmon said. “The other is that South Carolina goes Republican in national elections. Voters will hear both of these arguments in the weeks to come.”

Although one Calhoun County Democrat said the Obama campaign would spend almost $2 million in South Carolina, it would seem a no-brainer for the national party to spend more money in other states that have more electoral votes than South Carolina’s eight.

University of South Carolina political science professor Dr. Cole Blease Graham Jr. said he feels the biggest difference in this general election is that the Obama factor should result in more local voters participating in the process.

“While it’s still my opinion that South Carolina will be a dependable, solid McCain state, Obama may make things a little closer here than in past history,” Graham said. “The local Obama campaign is well-organized and has involved new voters that haven’t previously participated in politics. That surge has definitely resulted in stressing the importance of being registered to vote and getting to the polls.”

Graham said some local and statewide races may be closer than one might expect because of upheaval in the economy and new political paradigms.

“I think it would be a surprise if any incumbents are defeated,” Graham said. “However, the challengers may do better because many people don’t know what to do, whether it’s staying with the old way of doing things or trying something new and unknown. Still, South Carolina voters are notorious ticket splitters who tend to vote for the party on the national level and the person on the local level.”

T&D Staff Writer Phil Sarata can be reached by e-mail at psarata@timesanddemocrat.com and by phone at 803-533-5540. Comment on this and other stories online at www.TheTandD.com.

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