Obama will win S.C. – bet a dinner on it
By PHIL NOBLE Thursday, October 23, 2008Barack Obama is going to win nationally with over 55 percent of the vote. He will also carry South Carolina. Bet a lunch on it.
In June, I wrote an editorial that appeared in several papers across the state predicting Obama would carry our state. It met with the usual derision by many Republicans, and a few Democrats, and resulted in a highly publicized bet of a barbecue dinner with Katon Dawson, chairman of the S.C. Republican Party.
Today, I am even more convinced that Obama is going to win and I’d encourage everyone, Obama and McCain supporters, to find someone who thinks differently and bet a barbecue dinner on the election – it will be good for the country. More on the dinner bet later, but first why Obama will win.
First and foremost, Obama represents real and fundamental change in our county, in how we do our politics and govern ourselves. We all know we need real change in financial regulation, health care and many other areas. McCain essentially offered nothing but four more years of George Bush. Americans and South Carolinas believe that Obama is best to make the fundamental changes we need.
Second, Obama has changed the political map and math. Nationwide millions of new voters, mostly young and African-Americans, have been added to the rolls. In our state, over 304,000 people have been added since January and over 75 percent of these new votes are expected to vote for Obama. Bush’s margin in ’04 was only 276,000 votes. These new voters, along with a historic turn out of Democrats, a lot of independents – and more than a few Republicans – will give Obama a big win nationally and a narrow win in South Carolina.
And, most of these new voters are here to stay. Having once seen what their voice and involvement could do to change politics, they are not likely to retreat into civic apathy. More likely, we have seen the creation of a whole new generation of people who will redefine politics and will continue to do so for years to come.
Most of all, I’m truly excited about the new opportunity we as Democrats in South Carolina will have to change politics as usual. We need this change both within our party and change from the narrowness of the Republican’s one-party rule that has stifled our state for the last generation.
We now have a unique and historic opportunity to elect a new type of Democrat who can win again in South Carolina and change the direction of our state.
Third, this time traditional divisive Republican tactics did not work. McCain is an honorable man, but after he won the nomination he allowed his campaign to be taken over by the traditional cadre of Republican operatives/lobbyists/insiders that have run every Republican presidential campaign for a generation. Since the days of Lee Atwater, they have practiced and perfected tactics of the dark arts of character assassination, emotional wedge issues, racist appeals and the politics of fear. This time, it did not work.
Lord knows they tried again and again with their old tactics. They used the “kitchen sink” strategy and threw every sleazy tactic and charge they could think of at Obama and his wife. They tried guilt by association with the Rev. Wright and Bill Ayers; appeals to religious bigotry in calling Obama a Muslim; racist appeals with well-known code words and symbols; and attacks on their patriotism by charging that both Michele and Obama were somehow “un-American.”
I’d like to think it didn’t work because we as a people have learned and will not fall for this type of gutter politics again. Or perhaps our national concerns about an economic collapse simply overwhelmed the tactics of sleazy politics. I hope we will never go back to the old politics of race and fear – especially here in South Carolina.
Fourth, Obama unleashed the new power of the Internet in politics. The digital revolution has radically changed virtually every segment of our society – music and entertainment, commerce and business, news and information. And now, Obama has done it in politics. He used the technology to empower literally millions of people to give money online, contact and persuade their friends, organize events, register and reach new voters – and on and on it goes.
Obama will be the JFK of the Internet and his online revolution is just beginning. Just as Kennedy used the new medium of television, Obama will use the new digital technology to change how leaders communicate and connect with the people. He will foster new models of e-government, online citizen participation and interaction between citizens and their elected officials. And it is not only here in the United States but the impact will be global as well. In essence, Obama will be the first new type of truly wired global leader of the 21st century.
But back to the Palmetto State and that barbecue dinner. Tough elections about big issues are part of what makes us special as South Carolinians and Americans. So, no matter who you support today, find someone who supports the other guy and bet them a barbecue dinner on the race.
And, when it’s all over and the winner is clear, enjoy your dinner, settle your bet and then talk to your friend about the future and how we can make it better. Selecting a new president, Obama or McCain, is a chance for a new beginning – a chance to begin anew with new ideas and to begin to work together and focus on the things that unite us and not what divides us.
We are a great and good state and country, but we have some very big problems in front of us. We need to all work together, in the renewed spirit of our common heritage and destiny, to overcome these challenges for ourselves and our children.
Phil Noble, a Charleston businessman, is a member of Sen. Obama’s Statewide Steering Committee and president of S.C. New Democrats, an independent reform group founded by former Gov. Richard Riley. phil@SCNewDemocrats.org or www.SCNewDemocrats.org
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planet_mars wrote on Oct 30, 2008 12:13 PM:
Obama/Biden vs McCain/Palin, what if things were switched
around?....think about it.
Would the country's collective point of view be different? Could racism
be the culprit?
Ponder the following:
What if the Obamas had paraded five children across the stage, including
a three month old infant and an unwed, pregnant teenage daughter?
What if John McCain was a former president of the Harvard Law Review?
What if Barack Obama finished fifth from the bottom of his graduating
class?
What if McCain had only married once, and Obama was a divorcee?
What if Obama was the candidate who left his first wife after a severe
disfiguring car accident , when she no longer measured up to his
standards?
What if Obama had met his second wife in a bar and had a long affair
while he was still married?
What if Michelle Obama was the wife who not only became addicted to
painkillers but also acquired them illegally through her charitable
organization?
What if Cindy McCain graduated from Harvard?
What if Obama had been a member of the Keating Five? The Keating Five
were five United States Senators accused of corruption in 1989, igniting
a major political scandal as part of the larger Savings and Loan crisis
of the late 1980s and early 1990s.
What if McCain was a charismatic, eloquent speaker?
What if Obama couldn't read from a teleprompter?
What if Obama was the one who had military experience that included
discipline problems and a record of crashing seven planes?
What if Obama was the one who was known to display publicly, on many
occasions, a serious anger management problem?
What if Michelle Obama's family had made their money from beer
distribution?
What if the Obamas had adopted a white child?
What if Obama was computer illiterate and had never sent an email?
You could easily add to this list. If these questions reflected reality,
do you really believe the election numbers would be as close as they
are?
This is what racism does. It covers up, rationalizes and minimizes
positive qualities in one candidate and emphasizes negative qualities in
another when there is a color difference.
Educational Background:
Barack Obama:
Columbia University - B.A. Political Science with a Specialization in
International Relations.
Harvard - Juris Doctor (J.D.) Magna Cum Laude
Joseph Biden:
University of Delaware - B.A. in History and B.A. in Political Science.
Syracuse University College of Law - Juris Doctor (J.D.)
vs.
John McCain: United States Naval Academy - Class rank: 894 of 899
Sarah Palin:
Hawaii Pacific University - 1 semester
North Idaho College - 2 semesters - general study
University of Idaho - 2 semesters -journalism
Matanuska-Susitna College - 1 semester
University of Idaho - 3 semesters - B.A. in Journalism
Education isn't everything, but this is about the two highest offices in
the land as well as our standing in the world.
You make the call. "
baldtiger wrote on Oct 30, 2008 11:25 AM:
Why do you feel the need to troll? Obviously the Democratic Nom will win Orangeburg County. Its primarily Democrat! The state, however, is a total opposite. Its primarily Republican. Obama will not win SC or any other state that has semi-intelligent people.
Skyler,
As for my guns, whenever you feel froggy, go ahead an jump! "...from my cold dead hands." "
TAS wrote on Oct 30, 2008 10:45 AM:
rbrtsndr912 wrote on Oct 30, 2008 9:57 AM:
Now let's look at the flip side. Of the caucasian population in Orangeburg County I wouldn't have a clue what percent would or wouldn't vote for Barack Obama but I will make a bet with you right now and you specify the amount. I'll make you a bet that a larger percent of African American's support the African American/White candidate than the caucasian support for the caucasian candidate.
One thing we do know even before the balloting begins, Barack Obama will pick up a significant portion of his votes from white voters and we know that McCain will pick up insignificant if any from black voters. Yet, for those white voters that vote for McCain because they feel he is the most qualified they are somehow identified as "voting against Obama because he is black", go figure.
That should tell us who is voting along racial lines. "
st matt wrote on Oct 30, 2008 9:36 AM:
DURR101 wrote on Oct 29, 2008 4:46 PM:
confisus_sum wrote on Oct 29, 2008 3:26 PM:
msjones wrote on Oct 29, 2008 3:06 PM:
blkplaya9891 wrote on Oct 29, 2008 3:02 PM:
blkplaya9891 wrote on Oct 29, 2008 2:28 PM:
wagreen1 wrote on Oct 29, 2008 1:45 PM:
TAS wrote on Oct 29, 2008 12:01 PM:
confisus_sum wrote on Oct 29, 2008 10:16 AM:
agape wrote on Oct 29, 2008 8:04 AM:
(person of color, or woman) could lead this country. Some people become suspicious and try to label them as "anti-american". Some of us have become so conditioned th seeing white men in leadership positions.
TRUTH is that Obama can and is more than qualified to lead this wonderful, beautiful country of America.
Truth is that the world is changing and leadership can come from a Asian American, Hispanic American, Native American, African American, or a Woman.
What kind of message are we sending to the rest of the world as well as our children...is it that America can only be lead by a White American Male?? "
skyler 6 wrote on Oct 29, 2008 12:43 AM:
ANNUAL wrote on Oct 28, 2008 5:00 PM:
In one case you say "There is so much hatred in people heart for Obama and it's only because of the color of his skin" then you say " Let's face the fact, he's an educated strong black man" why do you bring up " strong black man" why not just say " strong man" see your playing the race card more than anyone else. Show me where anyone else here brings up race as to thats reason they are voting. Since your the one that brings up race Barry mom was white his dad was black. So does that make him a " strong educated black/white man"? Unlike you I will be voting for the best "STRONG AMERICAN" for the job. I happen to feel Mcain is the best person. Ok now you can go ahead and start attacking me for saying that. And whats up with "Pray that God will deliver you from hatred" what is this about. Just because someone does not think Barry should be president you label then as hatred. Wow another liberal reponse attack the person that does not agree with Barry. Nothing suprises me anymore from you liberals. And I am laughing at your comment "Stop whinning" thats funny coming from a liberal. You and the rest of the liberals have the market on whinning thats all you do when someone brings up facts against Barry!!!! thats a good one keep up the humor.... "
rbrtsndr912 wrote on Oct 28, 2008 4:46 PM:
msjones wrote on Oct 28, 2008 3:43 PM:
Sarah wrote on Oct 28, 2008 12:50 PM:
Sarah wrote on Oct 28, 2008 12:41 PM:
confisus_sum wrote on Oct 28, 2008 12:26 PM:
disillusioned droog wrote on Oct 28, 2008 9:47 AM:
disillusioned droog wrote on Oct 28, 2008 9:33 AM:
disillusioned droog wrote on Oct 28, 2008 9:30 AM:
TAS wrote on Oct 28, 2008 8:29 AM:
sweatr wrote on Oct 27, 2008 3:10 PM:
wagreen1 wrote on Oct 27, 2008 10:36 AM:
TAS wrote on Oct 26, 2008 7:27 PM:
rbrtsndr912 wrote on Oct 26, 2008 12:48 PM:
But, regardless, Obama has done an amazing job of convincing a tremendous amount of people that he is competent and he has done this with absolutely nothing of substance in his background.
But let’s discuss your article. I don’t believe he’s a Muslim. But we both know he was educated as a Muslim, this has been well documented, right? So, he doesn’t accept the faith we can leave that alone. We both know that for 20 years he attended the most radical church in Chicago and that Rev. Wright mentored him in his religion and married him to Michelle Obama, right? But he acknowledged that he never heard what Rev. Wright said, never agreed with him and disavowed the congregation, right? For 20 years he had a relationship with Bill Ayers, who, in the 60’s was a leader of a terrorist organization and currently espouses those very same beliefs to anyone who cares to listen to him, but Obama believes that he had been rehabilitated, right? His initial financial backer Tony Rizzo, close friend for 20 years also is now being sentenced to prison.
Here’s my point: I think it does matter “who you hang with”. Having lived and worked in Chicago, knowing the kind of environment that someone like Obama had to compromise constantly with, the political atmosphere created by Daly and others. And I haven’t even gone down the ACORN path. That is another relationship of long duration.
Yes, we want change. Be careful what you wish for. No one has peeled the skin off this onion. Does anyone really think for a minute that all of the money that is being pumped into his campaign is coming from the good old U.S.of A.? Millions is coming in from elsewhere, why? Why would the head of Libya be giving a speech praising Obama?
I think it’s exciting that we live in a country that we can change leadership every 4 years peacefully without doing it at the end of a gun barrel. Whether you agree with the policy of the other party or not there is never a debate that the person has the best interest of the country at heart. It’s just a matter of how we achieve it. "
supergirl wrote on Oct 25, 2008 11:57 PM:
rbrtsndr912 wrote on Oct 25, 2008 10:10 AM:
It is fascinating how so many people have jumped on the band wagon for this real and fundamental change that Obama represents when he doesn't have anything in his previous experience to point to this. He has a mediocre career as a community organizer, as an Illinois congrssman and virtually no record in the Senate, he wasn't there long enough to establish himself.
All of these new voters that you are talking about that is credited to him, yet virtually the same amount was added with John Kerry. So, is he on a par with John Kerry? That would be my guess. If you look at all the states that he is carrying and the numbers that are being reflected aren't they the same as those that John Kerry had? Isn't the only numbers that are really different those of John McCane, they are simply lower than those that George Bush had in 2000 and 2004....where did those voters go, tell you where, they are the undecided.
I love it when political partities talk about tactics. The Democrats talk about how savage the Republicans are and the Republicans talk about the Democrats. You blatantly state the "dark arts of character assassination" as if none of us ever heard of Sarah Palin. Never in the history of politics as anyone been attacked as she has, never has anyone been as courageous as she has. I remember when Ed Muskee stook weeping in the street because of the attacks on his wife, and you probably do too. The media and you guys are very vicious. As far as Obama goes, he has a lot to worry about, this is a junior senator from Illinois, two years in the senate and makes his run for President. His entire background is peppered with people that the average person from South Carolina would not associate with. I have lived and worked in Chicago and know the corruption first hand, both the political and the Tony Rizzo kind. Ayers is a radical, the church he attended is a radical, his financial supporter is awaiting sentence, all of these people were long time acquentences. you guys want to keep saying it was guilt by association, but hey, these were the people that he knew, did business with, worked with, lived in the community with.
But, in the end, you and your teammates are right, character don't matter. Bill Clinton proved that. He beat two really good people and got into office, then even fought off impeachment. But the reason that I brought that up was to bring up another parallel, without the collapse of the economy, and for the life of me I don't understand why the Democrats aren't getting killed for this, it all stated back with Jimmy Carter, then Bill Clinton and finally ended with Barney Frank and many other top Dem's. But it isn't, the Republican's are the one's that are being tainted, so, after Watergate, and Nixon, along comes Jimmy Carter. I voted for Jimmy Carter. Here was a big change, country needed a big change, someone that was very intelligent, do the right thing etc. etc. and of course we got the house and senate loaded with Democrat's. Do you and anybody else remember those fun day's? All of this running around looking for a real and fundamental change brings back not so fond memories of Jimmy Carter and those changes.
As the saying goes, watch what you wish for. I'm sure you remember that Clinton also started at promising no taxes at 250,000, then changed that to 100,000 then changed that to 50,000. We all know that the wealthy of this country cannot pay 100% of the burden that is coming down the road. Barney Frank, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and the team already are building the next installment of the debt. I'll bet another dinner that the middle class will be paying for that installment. "
skyler 6 wrote on Oct 25, 2008 7:28 AM:
cherokee wrote on Oct 24, 2008 4:17 PM:
If he is correct in his assumtions, no Governer nor commom person can ever be elected again to either position. How elitest is his assumtions. "
mjkaster@windstream.net wrote on Oct 24, 2008 1:17 PM:
No, no! Democracy is the "rule by mob." We have a Republic, sir, and no where is equality guaranteed, except in OPPORTUNITY! We're "created" equal but you must seize opportunity based on effort. You work-You eat. You don't work when you're able - you starve. (II Thessalonias 3:10).
Max J. Kaster,
St. Matthews "
mjkaster@windstream.net wrote on Oct 24, 2008 1:11 PM:
No thank you very much...I'll help take care of the poor, but I'll do it voluntarily without the government telling me what to give under threat of prison (IRS rules). Even God wants to be worshipped voluntarily! It seems Obama wants to be worshipped by the enacting of laws.
Max J. Kaster,
St. Mathews "
bravo14sc wrote on Oct 23, 2008 10:37 AM:
confisus_sum wrote on Oct 23, 2008 10:28 AM:
babywhiteruth@yahoo.com wrote on Oct 23, 2008 5:01 AM: