Investing advice for tough times
By BERT SHULER Tuesday, December 30, 2008This has not been a memorable year. The performance of nearly every major financial institution has been appalling, and the effects will be broad. The purpose of this writing is not to contemplate a solution.
I would, however, like to share some advice that I believe will improve your investment performance. But first, I am going to ask you to endure a little history lesson.
In 1919, the Trust Company of Georgia (predecessor to SunTrust Banks, Inc.) purchased The Coca-Cola Co. for $25 million. Under the direction of its president, Ernest Woodruff, the Trust Company offered 500,000 shares of Coca-Cola stock to the public at the price of $40 per share. (As an aside, Woodruff’s son, Robert, served as Coca-Cola’s president from 1923 until 1955. He remained on the board of directors until 1984.)
Although the details of the underwriting were more complex, the Trust Company (and I am simplifying here) retained warrants to purchase 24,900 shares of stock. The warrants were exercised, and the shares were held. At yearend 2007, they were worth $2.7 billion.
Note: During 2007, SunTrust decided to sell its Coca-Cola stock. These plans were initiated during the second and third quarters of 2008 with the charitable donation of 3.6 million shares, the market sale of 10 million shares, and the execution of equity-forward agreements on 30 million shares. (Got that?)
The lesson is the virtue of patience, and very few will dispute its relevance.
Since 1919, however, you might have found reason to do otherwise: The United States experienced eight recessions, not including events of 2008, during this period. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined year over year by 15 percent or more 13 times and by 30 percent or more four times.
Bretton Woods was adopted and abandoned. Inflation ran to double-digits. Price controls came and went. We witnessed the collapse of banking, currency and political systems in many parts of the world.
We fought five wars and impeached one president. Twice we were attacked on our own soil.
If you had purchased one share of Coca-Cola stock in 1919, you would have later found no shortage of “reasons” to sell it. The best time, however, would have been never. The odds are simply too great that you would have failed to find a superior replacement or repurchase at a lower price.
Investing is best when it’s most business-like. Think of a share of stock as part-ownership in a business, and you are bound to make fewer mistakes. Don’t borrow money to buy stocks, and if you trade frequently, stop. I once heard Peter Lynch remark, “Trading stocks is like gambling in a casino. There’s just more paperwork.”
If you don’t know what stocks to buy or don’t care to devote the attention, consider an index fund. Most investors could enhance their performance by selecting a low-cost index fund and investing over time. When taxes and transaction costs are considered, over half of all professional money managers fail to outperform broad-based market indices. This fact is difficult to ignore.
Finally, be patient and maintain a long-term viewpoint. On August 13, 1979, Business Week featured a story titled “The Death of Equities.” Fear was pervasive then, too. Thereafter, the Dow advanced 10-fold from 875 to 8,580.
GDP increased 570 percent over the same period (225 percent in real terms).
Bert Shuler graduated from Wofford College in May 2007. He lives in Columbia.
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